S&P 500, bitcoin and the election, market takeaways: Asking for a Trend

Stocks are still moving in after-hours trading, but let’s look back at the day’s biggest market movers and trading takeaways. This is Asking for a Trend with Josh Lipton, where he is joined by leading market experts and several Yahoo Finance senior reporters to break down the past trading day.

BTC Inc. CEO David Bailey comes onto the program to talk about how he envisions the direction of the crypto space moving under a second Trump administration.

Yahoo Finance markets reporter Jared Blikre dissects the three biggest trading takeaways for the day: the rotations in the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, the anticipation for earnings season, and whether the recession indicator “Sahm Rule” could be triggered soon.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here.

This post was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Video Transcript

Hello and welcome to ask me for a trend.

I’m Josh Lipton for the next half hour.

We’re going to be breaking down the trends of today that will move stocks tomorrow.

There is a lot to keep track of.

So we’re focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve.

Here are some of the trends.

We’re going to be diving into Biden doubling down the president pushing back on calls to leave the 2024 race today as lawmakers return to Capitol Hill, a candidate change could spike market uncertainty of course.

But in the near term investors have a slew of economic data and earnings results at the front of their minds.

Plus Bitcoin find to say about $55,000 in the model day of trading.

Significant selling pressure continues to mount against the Cryptocurrency as the German government offloads its holdings and creditors await the latest moves from the Mount gox bankruptcy state and a cooling labor market has meant workers are less likely to take risks by voluntarily leaving for new roles.

But that does not mean the employees who are staying put are feeling fulfilled.

We’re taking a closer look at the trends at play in the workplace.

Bitcoin continues to sink today but crypto digital asset products are seeing inflows for the first time actually in the weeks for more on the Cryptocurrency landscape, we’re now bringing in David Bailey.

He is CEO of BT C INC, an organizer at the Bitcoin Conference.

David.

It is good to see you.

So, you know, you think about this year, David, you know, Bitcoin, of course, you got that strong first quarter, everybody uh very excited about those new spot, Bitcoin ETS now lately, David, you know, not as much.

I, I, you know, first and foremost, I is it is it Mount Gox, is that the primary issue here, David that’s been causing some selling pressure.

Story continues

Well, first off, Josh, thank you for having me on the show.

And I have to say investors are still very excited about uh the Bitcoin ETF.

Uh Thank God we have Bitcoin ETF S because it’s been a brutal week of selling from the German government and from, and uh Mount Gox bankruptcy claims finally paying out after 10 years.

And so those ETF S are actually absorbing a lot of the liquidity blow that’s happening right now.

So, um we’re about two thirds of the way through uh the German government just dumping their Bitcoin.

Uh and we’re eager to see it concluded, but I think that will wrap up probably next week.

What would you see, you know, David, you look at the potential kind of near to intermediate term catalysts.

You know, what would you be looking for?

Is it um you know, a, a Dovish fed a rate cut or two, would that help?

You know, I think there’s probably two major catalysts that are driving the Bitcoin action right now.

First off, we just had a Bitcoin housing that occurred in April.

Um historically, every Bitcoin housing has caused a supply shock with Bitcoin.

And so the the these are kind of the precursors to what makes the price of Bitcoin dramatically rise over, you know, the next two years.

And so a lot of people in our industry are very eagerly watching that, that play out it takes time for the supply shock to really bake into the market dynamics.

Um And then the second kind of new catalyst I’d say is the political um environment for Bitcoin.

Uh Just today, uh details were released about the RN C’s official platform uh as it relates to Bitcoin and crypto.

And for the first time ever, Bitcoin is one of the key components of a, a major political party um platform.

So uh I think that there’s a lot of positive developments to come on the on the political and geopolitical side that are really kind of brand new catalysts for our industry and just let’s stick with politics, David, because mine are saying is you actually met uh former president uh Trump.

I’m just curious how that came about David.

What do you guys talk about?

Yeah, we, we talked to Bitcoin mining, we talked how Bitcoin is aligned with the president’s agenda for energy independence, for energy abundance, for America first.

Um to really dominate what’s a, a strategic asset of the United States.

So the president is, is very aligned with the Bitcoin industry and seize the opportunity that Bitcoin offers the United States and, and also the risk, you know, uh a lack of action um would bring about as well.

So, uh it was a very uh fruitful conversation.

Uh It’s also where, you know, the president and his, his classic style coined the term.

Uh We want Bitcoin made in America.

So, um it was, it was a very successful, it’s interesting, David because you, you had, as you’re pointing out rightfully, I mean, you’re seeing this, I mean, crypto has become an issue in this election and it’s interesting to see Trump uh positioning himself as an ally of the crypto community.

Do you think that works, David?

Do you think he’ll win over the crypto community?

Yeah, absolutely.

It’s already happening.

You know, there are 70 million people that own Bitcoin or crypto uh in the United States and there’s an old political adage that people vote their pocketbook.

Now, digital assets.

Bitcoin is people’s pocketbook.

And so when they’re making an analysis of who they’re going to vote for, there’s a lot of single issue voters that their number one priority is what’s going to be good for the, the value of my portfolio.

And so when you look at the two candidates right now, uh Trump has done a really amazing job at, at um making himself stand out as really the only candidate to pick.

So, uh you know, we’ve, we are trying to raise $100 million for the president’s re-election effort.

Um and we’re trying to turn out 5 million votes, swing votes uh in this upcoming election.

And so I think, you know, Bitcoin is really having its political moment.

David.

I’m also curious, I wanna get you out on this when you talk to your friends and family and maybe they don’t own Bitcoin and they’re thinking about it.

Um What do you tell them?

What, what’s the reason you say buy Bitcoin?

Do you say David Store of value?

Do you say me in exchange?

What, what’s the story you tell them?

You know, it’s, it’s a little bit of all of it.

I think, you know, you, you kind of cater the message of Bitcoin to uh who the buyer is.

You know, there’s different things that intrigue people about the technology.

Um You know, personally, I think what’s, what’s most exciting is like we, we live in a, in a world that’s very fractured.

Our monetary system is very fractured globally.

Bitcoin represents a fresh start, the ability to rebuild.

Um uh and rearchitect our monetary system for the world on a clean infrastructure.

And so uh when I, when I look at Bitcoin, I I make the case the of Bitcoin as as kind of the primary asset of a of a future monetary system.

And you know it at fundamentally it’s the number go up story.

It’s like what is one Bitcoin theoretically worth if Bitcoin fulfills its potential as, as you know, the the the new monetary system, David, it was great to have you on the show.

Thanks for making time for us.

Yeah, Josh, thank you for having me on Yahoo.

Finance’s, Jared Blick joins us now with more on the trading day takeaways, Jared.

Well, since the mag seven is the entire market, I’m noticing some rotation in the mag seven and that is underway and let me explain.

I’m gonna show you first our mega cap heat map here.

Uh Not this, I’ll pull that up.

And what we can see is a rotating cast of characters, not all green, not all red.

In fact, Apple today was the only stock only member of this group, at least of the ones on the left that closed at a record high.

You can see NVIDIA here coming back in the for uh but NVIDIA hasn’t made a record high in probably about two weeks.

Now, let me just show the year to date chart there and you can see it’s been kind of going sideways here and I’d bring up the fact that last year NVIDIA was going sideways for most of the year, about half of it.

So this is something that happens.

But meanwhile, when NVIDIA was kind of kind of taking a back seat, guess who made record highs.

Last week it was alphabet Amazon Microsoft.

Uh I believe meta was in there too.

So you’re not seeing that in Tesla, but even Tesla had its run in the sun.

So Tesla is pretty far away from a yeah, Tesla is pretty far away from a record high, but here’s a five year chart finally getting to some interesting levels here.

Yeah, and now let’s stick with Tech Jared because you on this very show.

I’ve been also talking to us about the drama, the Saga chips versus software.

Where are we there?

Well, I’ll tell you where we are chips today, are beating software today, but it this is another aspect of the rotation that’s going on.

It’s a healthy part of the market or health, healthy aspect of the market.

You can see NVIDIA there.

That’s a leader.

Obviously that’s up almost 2% but a BGO Broadcom up 2.5% just see a lot of performance.

And then you contrast that from the view that we get when we look at software.

Well, that’s another story, but I’ll tell you what you look at the year to date totals.

You’re gonna see lots of green on the screen a little bit of red, very similar situation for the semiconductors.

Maybe a little bit less red, maybe a little bit more green.

But that’s what you want to see.

And it’s this rotation that I’m talking about isn’t limited to tech.

Now.

We haven’t seen like financials and industrials really perk up recently.

But that’s what they did last year when the, when the mag seven finally took a back seat, they stepped up.

So that’s what we want to see is it happen this time?

All right, Jared Blicker.

Take away point number two, you bet.

Are we only on number two right now?

All right.

Uh, I’ll go a little faster record earnings expectations.

Now, here’s a very simple chart.

This goes back to, uh, kind of December 2021 S and P 500 earnings expectations.

They are at a record now, $259 per share.

That’s the for 12 month target there.

And what’s interesting, you can see this bottomed right around the change of the new year at the beginning of the last year.

But stocks actually bottomed in October.

This is for lift looking.

You can probably ship this forward three or six months.

So what this is telling me is there’s still gas in the tank for earnings to run.

And when you look at this is…